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Let me begin by saying this:

I joined TikTok six weeks before President Trump signed the initial executive order banning the app in August 2020. It was a tumultuous time at Kesha’s company, and many brands under my purview were unwilling to invest a single cent in the platform. Fast forward nearly four years, and the narrative has drastically shifted. TikTok's seamless integration into entertainment, news, education, and politics has made it an essential part of the post-COVID-19 advertising and content landscape, driving the cultural and digital currents shaping our world today. From the brands/ad side of things, if you’re not on TikTok at this point you’re a starfish living under a rock… Hi Patrick!

The World As We Know It

Ah, TikTok, where geopolitical chess and viral dance trends collide. It all began when ByteDance shelled out a cool $1 billion to snatch up Musical.ly, the Shanghai-based precursor. But it wasn't until Covid-19 came around that the app's intricate data policies and behind-the-scenes machinations truly hit the spotlight, clearly coinciding with TikTok’s meteoric rise in popularity across the world.

Since then, TikTok’s laundry list of issues has been paraded like a daytime soap. India's ban in 2020 following border tensions with China was a colossal blow, wiping out over 200 million users practically overnight. This wasn't just a history lesson; it was the first ripple that brought the prospect of a U.S. ban into striking distance. The U.S., Canada, Australia, and the entire European Parliament (amongst others) have all banned the app from government employees' phones, citing concerns over sensitive data. Even Afghanistan banned it due to “provocative” content, but I’m not sure the Taliban should be anyone's beacon of tech policy wisdom.

We'll dig into the nitty-gritty soon, but if Uncle Sam can substantiate his claims, it's not unlikely that the so-called "free world" will play follow-the-leader and boot TikTok too. And let's face it, despite what Tiktok will claim is "Mr. Worldwide" reach, isn't Pitbull-level success if the platform is Russia, South America, Africa, and parts of Asia.

The total number of users, which I’ve seen reported over a huge range, I believe is close to 1.5 billion, with the U.S. being the largest user base and probably around half of the most popular creators on the platform. I’ve seen numbers at around 150M users like the one above, but I think it’s closer to 200 million in the U.S. since a number I previously saw said 170M users which doesn’t include 13-17-year-olds which accounts for an additional ~15M+ users. Losing the biggest slice of that All-American apple pie could set off a global domino effect faster than you can scroll through your "For You" page.

And splitting TikTok into a U.S.-only and "Rest of the World" version? That's a sitcom-worthy fantasy. No American company is buying that convoluted pitch—especially when it’s been served with a side of bureaucratic fine print.

So Why Does Uncle Sam Want To Ban TikTok

1. National Security: The U.S. government has expressed concerns about ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, due to Chinese data laws that could compel it to share user data with the Chinese government, especially for national security purposes. Critics worry that this could lead to foreign surveillance or even espionage, where sensitive information might be used to track or profile American citizens. If you’re a regular user, though, you likely have little to worry about—just stick to private browsing for peace of mind!

2. Data Privacy: TikTok collects a wealth of user data, including browsing habits, location, device IDs, and facial recognition. Lawmakers and privacy advocates are wary that the app might collect more information than it discloses, leading to potential unauthorized data sharing. Even if data isn’t directly shared with Chinese authorities, there are concerns about how it might be accessed or used by third parties. Although TikTok has tried to be transparent with Project Texas, corporate structures can be complex, and sharing information across teams isn’t always clearly delineated. Let’s be clear - this is an issue with every single platform. I’d say other tech giants are even more liable to the data privacy and ownership of your data as a consumer than TikTok.

3. Political Influence and Misinformation: TikTok’s recommendation algorithm curates personalized content for users, and some U.S. officials believe it could be manipulated to suppress certain viewpoints or amplify misleading information. This could affect elections or shape public opinion. Foreign governments could even use the platform to sway sentiment or stir unrest. The lack of clarity on how TikTok identifies and addresses misinformation raises concerns, especially given how the platform allows exposure to diverse content at a large scale. If the majority of content supports one side of a debate, it could unintentionally skew perceptions without much critical analysis. However, this isn't unique to TikTok—every social media platform grapples with similar challenges related to political influence and misinformation, often driven by their respective algorithms and policies. I believe TikTok faces the biggest issues with misinformation given that you don’t have the cozy insulation you might have on other platforms. If you watch content that will rile you up, Tiktok’s algorithm will recognize your watch times and engagement to continue to push content on that topic.

4. Censorship and Content Moderation: ByteDance’s content moderation policies are scrutinized due to concerns that they could align with the Chinese government's priorities. Critics point to instances where content related to sensitive topics like the Hong Kong protests or Xinjiang internment camps has been suppressed. U.S. officials worry that such censorship could be extended to favor Beijing’s narratives while silencing dissenting voices. If you look at content moderators across the platform where do they reside? Do those moderators understand the nuances of different cultures in what should be allowed and moderated on the platform? Subtleties across languages and cultures can be significantly different and no matter how much you train someone it’s not always perceived with the same nuance as a native to that culture may see it.

5. Tech Rivalry with China: The rise of TikTok has amplified the tech rivalry between the U.S. and China. With tensions already high due to trade disputes and security concerns, the U.S. government is wary of a Chinese-owned platform gaining such rapid influence. By limiting or banning TikTok, the U.S. could prevent China's tech companies from solidifying their foothold in the American market, ensuring that data remains protected and U.S. tech firms retain a competitive edge. China already bans plenty of U.S. tech products so I find it kind of hilarious that TikTok is using Freedom of Speech as a key component to their challenge of banning the platform.

From a political campaign perspective, it’s frankly hilarious that Biden decided to join the app a few months before banning it and that Trump is considering joining TikTok to rally support from a younger demographic. The hypocrisy within the political landscape never ceases to surprise me.

TikTok’s Appeal To The U.S.

To fend off a potential U.S. ban, TikTok has a whole playbook of strategies to woo regulators and lawmakers: ramp up transparency, localize data storage, bolster independent oversight, engage with legislators, and run savvy public campaigns. Their flagship effort, "Project Texas," aims to store U.S. user data on Oracle-managed American servers. But just because the data's on home turf doesn’t mean it’s locked up tighter than Fort Knox; a quick email could still breach the defenses. TikTok has already ticked most of the boxes, leaving one last card on the table.

Legal action remains the only viable move. TikTok has asked the court for a declaratory judgment to rule the law unconstitutional and prevent Attorney General Merrick B. Garland from enforcing it. Now, the ball is in the government's court. Quite frankly, sneaking it into a foreign aid bill for Ukraine and Israel, ensuring that the ban would pass along with clearly important issues is a classic political move. Shady at best.

As for Shou Chew, he's been a maestro in the public eye, navigating the Washington waters with apparent ease. But let’s face it: the questions thrown at him were like playing Mario Kart on 50cc (a joke). And now, with his Met Gala debut, he's firmly in the spotlight. If you scroll through the comments on any TikTok with Shou in it, you’ll see one key slogan “In Shou We Trust.” Also with 4 Million TikTok followers why does he even need to be a CEO - maybe it’s time to reposition to full-time influencer. That’s actually what this Forbes article essentially says - that Shou Chew is just a conduit of the real TikTok decision makers, which are Bytedance executives… which I don’t necessarily disagree with.

So How Does This Affect Me?

A TikTok ban would undoubtedly send ripples through the digital world, leaving both creators and brands scrambling to rethink their strategies. With its addictive scroll culture and uniquely playful vibe, TikTok has set a high bar for creativity, and losing this dynamic platform means that everyone involved will need to up their game—or risk slipping back into a marketing purgatory of cookie-cutter content and lazy sponsorships. If you look at the India example from 2020. Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, were the simple alternative taking a majority of the influencers and eyeballs that had been left idle.

Here's a breakdown of what creators and brands need to keep in mind to stay ahead of the curve.

Potential Consequences for Creators:

1. Diversifying Platforms: If TikTok vanishes, creators can't afford to put all their eggs in one social media basket. They’ll need to quickly expand their presence across other platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and Snapchat Spotlight. Think of it as a digital insurance policy—you can't afford to let your online empire crumble just because one platform goes up in smoke. As a creator, I’m in this boat. Excel Daddy has ~500K on TikTok, I don’t plan only having this Daddy’s ship sink just yet.

2. Collaborating Across Niches: With TikTok's interconnected network of creators gone, it's time for collaboration across niches to maintain exposure. Food bloggers can team up with travel vloggers, fitness influencers can join forces with tech reviewers—cross-pollinating audiences keeps both sides fresh and gives followers something new and exciting.

3. Strengthening Communities: In a world where platforms can disappear faster than a viral trend, creators should focus on strengthening their communities. Building email lists or leveraging platforms like Discord or Patreon could help creators keep in touch with their loyal followers and establish more direct connections. Consider it your digital safety net. Own your audience, don’t rent it! I always use this one example to clarify my point. If Christiano Ronaldo open hand slapped Mark Zuckerberg across the face and Zuck decided to ban Cr7… The True Goat, then Cristiano loses 630 million followers. That’s 1/4th of the entire platform. That’s 1/12th of the entire population on this planet! Potentially billions of dollars of lost revenue. @Cristiano Ronaldo - own your audience dude!

Potential Consequences for Brands:

1. Embracing Creativity: TikTok's playful, anything-goes spirit has encouraged brands to think outside the box. Without it, brands risk slipping into the stale patterns of old-school social media marketing. It’s honestly so easy to just do basic made-for-TV ads on YouTube, Instagram, and Snapchat. TikTok has made it necessary for brands to step up or sit down in the ad space. To prevent a return to formulaic, one-size-fits-all campaigns, brands, and more importantly the agencies that work for them need to foster that creativity in-house. Or maybe bring in an intelligent consultant 😉😉...

2. Building Effective Partnerships: With TikTok out of the picture, building more synergistic partnerships with creators becomes even more important. I don’t want to see cookie-cutter, lifestyle creators doing every campaign. It’s not the time to fall back on impersonal sponsorships that could be copy-pasted into any ad campaign. Brands must be selective, developing partnerships that feel authentic and relevant to the audience.

3. Exploring New Formats: Brands should experiment with emerging formats, like live shopping and AR filters, to keep audiences engaged and stand out in the crowded social media landscape. If TikTok’s sudden disappearance teaches us anything, it's that you need to stay agile—trying new things is better than being left behind in the dust of old habits.

The Verdict!

Three potential situations could occur:

1. TikTok is Sold Outright: The idea of TikTok being sold in its entirety is far-fetched. With over $20 billion in projected U.S. revenue alone next year and a strong presence outside the U.S., ByteDance isn't going to let go of its crown jewel without a fight. Besides, only a handful of companies have the financial muscle to even consider such a colossal acquisition.

2. TikTok Gets Sold With Stipulations:

   • Without the Algorithm: The hype around TikTok’s algorithm might be overblown. I believe a strong tech team could reverse-engineer a similar user engagement model by capturing content testing strategies and user profiling techniques. TikTok even published a full breakdown of the algorithm a few years back (although I can’t find the report and it’s always changing). Still, TikTok’s magic lies in the user dynamics created once people log in - you’re thrust into the content. No search, no buttons to click, just content.

   • Selling Only the U.S. Side: Selling the U.S. arm alone would cripple the platform, turning it into a shadow of its global self. While 200 million American users is a solid base, it pales compared to the 1.5 billion global user pool.

3. TikTok Gets Banned: If ByteDance refuses to sell, a ban looms on the horizon. If TikTok’s appeal reaches the Supreme Court, we could be in for a legal saga of epic proportions.

If someone claims to know with absolute certainty how this will all shake out, they're either a masterful storyteller or you've wandered too far into the realm of wishful thinking. It's all ifs and buts right now. If Trump takes the White House again, he might scrap the ban or uphold it, just because it’s already on the books.

As a creator and strategy consultant with a deep understanding of the platform, my ideal scenario is for the platform to be snapped up entirely by a company like Microsoft. That was my hope back when I worked at TikTok, and I believe it’s still the best shot at a smooth landing for creators and brands alike.